HS2 - still no sign of a train leaving the station

The much-beleagured HS2 railway project continues to be beset by both delay and ever-increasing costs.

Rail Magazine, in a piece published on 14 May, comment that the new Chief Executive of HS2 Ltd, Mark Wild, in a preliminary assessment of the scheme, estimated an increased cost of £81billion (at 2019 prices) and a delayed opening to at last 2036 although more likely 2039.

Taking into account inflationary pressures, the true cost will likely exceed £100billion for a fraction of the originally planned scheme (the entire project was estimated, even in the 2019 stocktake, to be less than the cost that will now likely be incurred just for the London to Birmingham leg, acknowledging that there has been further inflation since then).

The table below, prepared by the Institute for Government  shows the dramatic increases in the costs estimate over time.  There is clearly a substantial disparity between the Phase 1 only  2023 Ministerial Statement estimate and that now being discussed by Mr Wild.

Delay is also a substantial factor in the criticism of this project.  Phase One was originally due to open  in 2026 and yet now looks set to be at least 10 years' late, if not 13 (and potentially more than that still).

This must shine a dim light on the Country's ability to deliver at scale infrastructure projects, particularly given the significant and harmful impacts such projects cause on people, their homes and their businesses.  This is particularly pertinent given the Government's announcement that it intends to spend £15.6 billion on other transport projects, particularly in Northern England.

It also raises questions about just what can be done to address the ever-spiralling expense of this project when global and national economic conditions are presenting such substantial challenges.

The Government is of course committed to reviewing the law of compulsory purchase with a view to creating what the Government describes as a “more efficient and effective” process, aimed at “ensuring quicker decisions on compulsory purchase orders can be made, reducing the administrative costs of undertaking the process, and striking a balance to make sure compensation paid to landowners is not excessive but they are still paid a fair price”.

We are yet to see precisely what that might look like - and that balance is one of critical importance - but whatever reform is ultimately made, such reform will not help HS2 in any significant way.  

HS2 remains a project that urgently needs to be got back on track so that it is running (even in a slimmed down way) before it risks becoming obsolete and without its cost spiraling even further.  

There may well be benefits delivered by this new railway line but, given the ever increasing cost and delay of the project, those benefits are going to have to be of such a scale that currently seems to be unlikely, particularly when one considers the negative impact already being felt by those who have lost their homes, suffered disturbance and experienced business impacts.