H2 2025 – Corporate Deal Highlights

The closing half of 2025, much like its predecessor, continued to be one underpinned by geopolitical threat and instability. Conflicts persist in the Middle East and Central Europe, and tensions expanded into parts of the Americas. If the opening weeks of 2026 are anything to go by, that threat looks set to continue, with the traditional Western political and economic order under its greatest strain in decades.

Despite this, there are positive signs for the UK. Whilst the Labour Government continues to battle challenges to its agenda – from outside and within – inflation continues to ease; interest rates continue to fall; and comparative political stability has ensured the UK still remains a relatively predictable environment for business. All these signs have driven valuation confidence and financing conditions – positive news for mid-market business activity, for now.

For a spotlight on some of our clients' more notable deals supported by our Corporate team in the second six months of 2025, please click here.

Assessing our H2 predictions and what’s next?

We made a series of predictions for mid-market deal activity in August, and we’ve been comforted to see that, for the most part, these have played out as expected.

• Continued deployment of private capital dry powder. The story of global M&A in 2025 was the ‘mega deal’ - transactions above $10bn worldwide grew by more than 128%. Mid-market activity did not accelerate to the extent we had anticipated, but there were certainly positive signs. Within our own ranks, we continued our support for long-standing clients Puma Growth Partners across their investments in YASO, and HubBox; and Battery Ventures on their $165m investment into Signal AI. The resurgence of larger cap transactions worldwide – particularly within UK financial services - is one we view with great optimism for the mid-market; it demonstrates market-level confidence that we anticipate trickling down into mid-market deal flow.
• Continued interest in UK assets by foreign investors. Global investment in the mid-market UK landscape remained resilient in the early stages of 2025 and continued to do so as the year progressed. We witnessed two huge US investments - Corpay’s £1.8bn acquisition of Alpha Group and International Paper’s £5.8bn acquisition of DS Smith – and continued appetite in sport was evidenced with our own support for Sun Group on its acquisition of Northern Superchargers. Whilst a comparatively low Sterling increases the attraction of UK assets, a continued stable legal and regulatory environment, openness to foreign ownership, and strong talent base continues to attract foreign capital.
• Geopolitical instability would become the new normal. Perhaps one of our more understated predictions, this has certainly remained the case. Recent days alone have seen huge, and public, geopolitical shifts underscoring just how difficult it is to predict where things go next. Yet dealmaking remains resilient. Boards increasingly recognise that strategic activity cannot wait for periods of stability; there is no guarantee they will come. Perhaps now more than ever, it is crucial to have calm and pragmatic external advisors by your side.
• AI investment will become an imperative for businesses. Amidst media rumours of the AI boom being merely an AI bubble, the industry has remained buoyant. The UK AI sector – now valued at £6bn –has grown 85% in the past two years, now contributing close to £12bn to the UK economy. AI is the now, not the future. As an investible asset, we expect AI businesses to attract the lens of eager mid-market sponsors, as we have seen with Battery’s acquisition of Signal AI and IFS’s acquisition of 7bridges. As a route to transformational change, we also expect AI acquisitive strategies to be high up on board agendas as a route to operational efficiency. It is crucial that appropriate due diligence is carried out and cultural and strategic impact is considered to avoid integration pitfalls.
• Acceleration of family and founder-owned sales to negate the impact of BPR. It is difficult to say if the anticipation of BPR and APR changes, though somewhat softened in the November budget, have accelerated exit events, but we continue to speak to many of our family and founder-owned businesses on the potential impact on their long-term strategic ambitions with April 2026 fast approaching. Our rare combination of private client and corporate expertise makes us a natural ally to this client base, which we anticipate will to continue to grow at pace in the next few years. We were delighted, for example, to support the shareholders of the family business, Colpac on their sale to Sabert.
• Continued interest in the development of PISCES. PISCES remains a project we watch with interest, though the market still awaits clarity on detail and timelines. PISCES has the potential to act as a natural partner to mid-cap private capital, offering shareholders access to liquidity without a full exit or public listing.

What else might we see across mid-market deal activity in 2026?

Short of the mid-market needing to see a persistent increase in activity, we also predict further trends across the 2026 deal landscape, including:

• Secondary liquidity as a strategic differentiator – though we predict an easing, assets continue to be held for far longer than the historical norm; pressure continues to build for LPs to retain and realise value from these assets. Consistent reviews of corporate governance strategy – a service we offer – is an effective tool in assessing asset value but the ability to achieve liquidity without an outright sale of the underlying asset in what is seen as a soft market by some, may prove to be a useful strategic tool. Our secondaries specialists are well‑placed to support clients assessing this option.
• Acceleration of corporate carve outs – with mega-deal activity, comes the strategic aftermath. It is natural to anticipate that the surge of large-cap transactions will result in repositioning efforts, as companies focus on core profitability. This will inevitably lead to strategic carve outs, offering attractive mid-market acquisition opportunities for private capital players.
• A resurgent capital markets space – after a prolonged slowdown, there are signs of hope for the UK capital markets scene. Q4, particularly across the AIM market, saw 11 listings on the LSE totalling £1.9bn. The Chancellor spoke recently of her hopes for a new “golden age for the City”; with continued Listing Rules reform, we cautiously share that optimism. See more on our predictions for the UK capital markets here.

Whilst global uncertainty remains the defining feature of the dealmaking landscape, the strength of large-cap activity globally in 2025 is something we view with great optimism. We expect this confidence to begin feeding down into the mid-market engine room of the UK economy through 2026, and we remain well placed to support those clients to achieve the best outcome.

To read more on our market predictions for some of our key sectors of focus, please click the links below:

UK Living Sector

2026 is set for an upswing, with PBSA and BTR attracting greater capital as regulatory clarity, improved liquidity and streamlined public‑market rules create a more confident investment environment.

Hotels

2026 looks set for another upbeat year, with solid demand from international and domestic travellers, supportive investment volumes and growing momentum behind renovation, AI‑driven efficiency and more flexible, experience‑led brands.

Retail,Food and Beverage

A sector that can look to 2026 with optimism as they continue to demonstrate resilience and investor interest. Despite notable cost and regulatory pressures, both markets remain well poised for growth fuelled by evolving consumer behaviours, sector-specific innovation and sustained private capital engagement.

Technology

A resilient UK IT services market in 2025 points to a promising 2026. We anticipate buyers pursuing capability‑led consolidation and focus on deepening strengths in AI, data engineering and cybersecurity. A confident outlook for us, driven by continued demand across regulated, mission‑critical sectors and ongoing international expansion.