Corporate Deal Highlights: A spotlight on H1 2026 - waiting is no longer a strategy for mid-market dealmakers

As we pass the half year mark for 2026, we look back at our predictions in January with one clear takeaway – at home and abroad, political uncertainty has not receded, nor even has it simply maintained its course - it has intensified.

The continuation of long-standing global tensions has set the tone of the first half of 2026, and has continued to progress into an even more reactive and unpredictable global landscape. Outside of the political turmoil that has gripped a promised period of stability in the British government, we’ve watched in trepidation the escalation of conflict in Iran, which has sent renewed tremors through energy markets, shipping routes and investor confidence worldwide. Our key piece of advice for stakeholders in the mid-market dealmaking space in January was that geopolitical volatility would remain ever-present; and that strategic urgency would outweigh macroeconomic caution. That has remained the case, and strategic flexibility will continue to be a crucial component for growth in 2026. 

Against  this backdrop, financing conditions are improving incrementally within major dealmaking regions. Though benchmark interest rates still hover precariously around the 3.5% to 3.75% rate in key markets - high by recent historical standards - the direction of travel remains positive. Encouragingly, dealmaking has not paused – it has, as we had hoped, adapted. Whilst volumes have yet to recover to previous highs, global deal value reached $2.8tn in the first six months of 2026, up 41% year on year. Global M&A driven by the “mega deal” is a trend that 2026 has inherited from last year, so much so that transactions above $5bn accounted for almost half of total deal value. 

The mid-market space remains more nuanced. In our previous update, we anticipated that this mega deal activity would trickle down into a renewed confidence amongst mid-market deal makers. This has not quite materialised…yet. There remains significant levels of under-deployed private capital, as investors remain cautious in committing to transactions, battling still against a backdrop of not just national and international political uncertainty – felt more strongly by mid-market players – but continued valuation gaps. The mid-market space remains rich in potential capital, as we have seen across a number of exciting mid-market deals for our clients, but for the sector as whole, deal flow remains uncertain.

For a spotlight on some of our client’s more notable deals in the first six months of 2026, please click here.

Key themes for global mid-market M&A across the first six months of 2026

• Mid-market caution driving deal activity – mid-market M&A is the engine room for economic growth, and whilst deal value in the UK doubled compared to the previous six months, volume declined by 22%. Whilst financing, though improving, remains a reasonable concern felt more sensitively within the mid-market space, with valuations for small and mid-cap companies at historically low levels we might have hoped for a more attractive landscape for buyers and consolidators. Focus instead appears to be on transactions of critical strategic value, through bolt-ons and carve-outs.
• Dry powder remains – in an almost identical summary of H2 2025, the story for financial sponsors in the dealmaking space remains a story of caution. Efforts remain focused on investments that can demonstrate clear returns against competing operational, strategic and geopolitical pressures. Private equity sponsors globally are estimated to be sitting on $4.3tn of dry powder, creating an increasing immensity of pressure within the community to deploy.
• The UK remains an attractive prospect for foreign investment – one of the more consistent threads through both 2025 and the first half of 2026 has been the continued interest in UK assets from overseas investors. We saw this perhaps most notably in our latest sports investment deal, advising US-based Arise Capital Partners on their high-profile takeover of Sheffield Wednesday FC. Building on the US investment theme, we also advised Pooky Lighting on their sale to US lighting company, Visual Comfort & Co. Whilst Sterling dynamics are clearly at play, it is not the sole driver – with relative stability compared to global activity, and continued strength across core growth sectors, particularly sport, tech and financial services.
• Mid-market resilience remains pooled around key growth sectors – whilst dealmaking on the main has demonstrated mixed results in the initial 2026 period, the story is slightly more positive within core growth sectors, particularly technology and financial services. Technology continues to benefit from investor demand for AI and operational efficiency; and financial services has also seen some strong activity, defined by ongoing industry consolidation and continued appetite for scalable platforms to support an increasingly tech-efficient consumer base.  We saw this ourselves with some high-profile activity across each – Warwick on their $158m sale to Assured Guaranty; and Obviously Group on their sale to AIM-listed RWS.

A spotlight on international M&A

Outside of the UK, the story remains strong in several other key dealmaking jurisdictions:

Asia

A key development across the beginning of 2026 has been the increasing influence of Asia within the global mid-market M&A space. Whilst attention often remains focused on the US and Europe, Singapore and Hong Kong as increasingly establishing themselves as major hubs for international deployment of an increasingly sophisticated ecosystem of private capital stakeholders, with family offices, sovereign investors and private capital sponsors increasingly targeting UK and European opportunities. As these investment corridors mature, and as the region shifts strategies to outward investment, we expect Asia's role in UK mid-market transactions to become increasingly influential.

Middle East

Whilst facing difficulties through ongoing geopolitical tensions, the Middle East continues to emerge as one of the most active sources of globally mobile capital.  Sovereign wealth funds continue to demonstrate high-profile visibility across the global investment space, particularly across technology, digital infrastructure and energy sectors. Increasingly, however, we are seeing the growth of other stakeholders - family offices, institutional investors and private capital managers – all exploring diversification opportunities.  Gulf investors are increasingly pursuing partnership-led investment strategies, co-investments and minority stake acquisitions, rather than large-scale strategic transactions – which will expand their relevance within the mid-market space, where minority investments, growth capital and co-investment structures are increasingly common.  At the same time, the continued professionalisation of family offices and private investment platforms across the GCC is creating a broader and more sophisticated investor base, further strengthening the region's role in global capital flows

Europe

With interest rates in the Eurozone offering a more attractive financing route for mid-market dealmaking, the broader EMEA region saw its best opening half of a year for almost 20 years, with an 87% year on year increase in deal volume, totalling almost $850m. Much of that activity has been concentrated around cross-border consolidation, particularly within financial services as has been the case in the UK; but also across industrials and technology. Succession-driven opportunities amongst privately-owned and family-controlled businesses is also driving interesting mid-market opportunities for strategic acquirers and private capital sponsors pursuing buy-and-build strategies.

North America

Amidst pending mid-terms and military action in Iran, the political environment remains volatile. That said, North America remains the home of international private capital, and a key reason for our recent office openings in New York and Connecticut. Deal volume in the region hit a historic half year high (up 66% year on year) driven by some huge transactions, including SpaceX/xAI, and the Paramount/Warner Bros deals. But behind the megadeals, we see the midmarket engine room continue to hum, as exit bottlenecks continue to create pressure on sponsors to deploy capital – a particular point of interest for UK and European growth sector assets, as we have seen across our own deal activity.

So, what’s next for mid-market UK M&A?

• A Burnham bounce? – in recent days we welcomed our seventh UK Prime Minister in ten years. Whilst we await details of how his premiership may differ materially from those before, early signs seem to steer towards a more business-focused tone from government, renewed emphasis on infrastructure delivery, planning reform and support for capital markets – each of which could provide incremental support to investor confidence.
• Steady release of capital – whilst geopolitical developments will continue to cause hesitation, we anticipate this hesitation to deploy capital easing over the remainder of the year, driving mid-market dealmaking. It will be measured, targeting strategic assets in growth sectors demonstrating clear returns for investors, particularly financial services and technology.
• Alternative liquidity solutions to enter the mainstream – we predicated in January that secondary liquidity would become a strategic differentiator in a market holding assets for far longer than historically usual. We continue to hold this belief, and expect to see greater deployment of continuation vehicles, GP-led secondaries and structured liquidity solutions – no longer niche products, but an increasing feature of the private capital landscape.
• Growing influence of international family offices – in an economic environment where we hope financing conditions to continue its steady improvement, significant pools of global private wealth and a preference for longer-term investment creates huge opportunity for family office structures to compete more actively against traditional private equity, particularly across founder-led businesses and strategic growth investments.

Whilst challenges remain, the underlying direction of travel remains positive. Waiting for perfection is no longer a viable strategy, and those who are bold, flexible, and able to capitalise on the strength of the assets in play will be best set up for growth over the next few years.

If you are a business, founder, or investor operating within the global mid-market M&A space and would like to discuss any of the themes outlined in this article, or indeed on any other strategic corporate matter, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.